dfs

Top DFS Stacks for Week 14 (Draft Kings NFL Main Slate)

Week 14 is here, and that means just a few more weeks left of fantasy goodness. In my last article, I targeted certain players to target in your lineups (and also to avoid). Here, I’ll continue to offer my recommendations on stacks that will help to give you an advantage over the rest of the field. In this article, I’m going to target players that have higher implied totals so that you can maximize the scoring potential from each stack. Also, these are stacks that I would recommend for my Houston Preeminence Draft Kings Contest. Here we go!

Aaron Rodgers - $6,000/Davante Adams - $8,400: I would normally want to add the opposing WR to this stack, in this case, it would be Julio Jones, but Jones isn’t 100 percent right now, and I don’t want to blow most of my salary on three players. So, for now, we’re going to stick with the most popular DFS stack in the QB/WR1 stack. The Packers are 4-1-1 at home, and Rodgers is averaging 20 fantasy points per game at Lambeau. Adams, averaging 23 fantasy points per game himself, has a positive matchup against the Falcons’ Robert Alford.

Philip Rivers - $6,500/Keenan Allen - $7,400: The Chargers have an implied today of 31 this week, so expect the points to be coming early and often. Over the last three weeks, Rivers has been the seventh best fantasy QB, and Allen has been the number one fantasy WR. The one concern is that this game could be decided by halftime, as the Chargers are a 14 point favorite at home, but I think that’ what makes this for a sneaky good stack.

Deshaun Watson - $5,900/DeAndre Hopkins - $7,800/T.Y. Hilton - $6,300: This is a matchup I love for the Texans. The Colts’ pass defense is ranked 21st in DVOA, which means nothing but good things for Watson and company. Hopkins scored 33 fantasy points the last time these teams faced off in Week 4. On the other side of the ball, you have the “Texans Killer” in T.Y. Hilton. In six road games against the Texans, Hilton is sporting a line of 32/734/6. He’s dealing with a shoulder injury, but as long as he plays, he is a worthy start. If he can’t go, look to swap Hilton for Eric Ebron. He is top five in receptions and targets for TEs, first in TDs, and second in red zone targets.

***All stats provided by Football Outsiders, 4for4.com, and Pro Football Reference***

Draft Kings Week 14 Report

The season is winding down, with just three weeks left. Week 13 brought us some key injuries, which means there will be some really nice value throughout fantasy football. This is the time of year when RB2 and WR3 really make an impact on their teams, so let’s dive in and try to win you some money this weekend.

QB:

Aaron Rodgers - $6,000 (LOCK): I believe that a coaching change is just what the doctor ordered, and I’m sure Rodgers isn’t complaining. In 12 games this season, Rodgers threw for over 300 yards just three times, along with three TDs just twice. I feel that he will break out this Sunday, as he’s facing a Falcons defense that gives up a 69 percent completion rate, a six percent touchdown rate, and 21 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs.

Marcus Mariota - $4,900 (VALUE): Since Week 9, Mariota has been averaging 20 Draft Kings points per game, and for someone that’s priced at $4,900, that’s a great value. I know that he’s facing the Jaguars, and they had a great game against the Colts last week. Let’s not forget that this is the same Jacksonville team that lost seven straight games prior to last week, giving up an average of 27 points per game. Taywan Taylor is healthy, giving Mariota another weapon alongside Corey Davis. I like Mariota to hit value in this spot.

Andrew Luck - $5,900 (FADE): I’m a believer in this Texans defense, and it’s not just because I work for Houston Preeminence. Luck had an absolute dud against the Jags last week and was sacked more times in that game than he had been in the seven weeks prior to that. The Colts are a road underdog, and that doesn’t bode well for Luck, especially as he’ll be facing a Texans defense that ranks sixth in total DVOA.

RB:

Christian McCaffrey - $9,300 (LOCK): His price tag might look a bit daunting, but he’s well worth it. He’s the third highest scoring fantasy running back, and he’s going up against a Browns defense that gives up 113 rushing yards, 52 receiving yards, and 20 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs. Even with Devin Funchess back from his neck injury, I expect McCaffrey to continue to see a heavy workload in the passing game.

Jaylen Samuels - $3,700 (VALUE): When the Steelers feature a running back, they really feature a running back. With James Conner already ruled out for Week 14, that means Samuels will get the call. The fifth round pick out of NC State has almost as many targets as he has rushing attempts. Granted, those rushing attempts have led to just 2.6 yards per attempt. The upside with Samuels outweighs everything, as he needs just 12 points to hit value, and he’ll be going up against a Raiders defense that has been shredded by RBs for an average of 126 yards per game.

Todd Gurley - $8,800 (FADE): DO NOT bench Todd Gurley in your season long leagues. I just don’t like his price in DK, facing a tough Bears defense in Chicago. Yes, Saquon Barkley rushed for over 100 yards last week, but the Bears haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher at home all season. In fact, the Bears haven’t given up more than 51 rushing yards to a single RB at home all year. I love Gurley, I do. But I’m looking elsewhere in DFS this week.

WR:

Julio Jones - $7,900 (LOCK): Julio burned me last week, but I’m going back to the well on this one. The Falcons are road underdogs against a Packers defense that allows 37 fantasy points per game to opposing WRs. Jones is averaging 22 Draft Kings points per game, which is fifth best among WRs. As underdogs, the Falcons will most likely be playing from behind, which means Matty Ice will be airing it out to his number one guy. With a 29 percent target share, and 14.7 aDOT, I expect Julio to have some big gains through the air.

Zay Jones - $4,200 (VALUE): Jones’ only competition for targets this year was Kelvin Benjamin, and the Bills released Benjamin today. That makes Jones the clear-cut number one option in Buffalo, and it couldn’t come at a better time. He’ll be matching up against the Jets’ Buster Skrine, who has been repeatedly embarrassed by opposing WRs this season. As Josh Allen continues to improve, so will Jones’ fantasy numbers.

Tyler Boyd - $6,100 (FADE): A.J. Green is done for the season, and that just means that more of the opposing defense’s attention will be put on Boyd. In the games that Green has missed this year, Boyd only topped 20 fantasy points once. That’s not what you want to see from a “number one” receiver. This week he gets a stout Chargers defense. I don’t see this going very well for Boyd.

TE:

Travis Kelce - $6,700 (LOCK): I don’t care about his price tag, you jam Kelce into your lineups no matter what. He’s only second to Zach Ertz in receptions and targets, first in yards per game and also in red zone targets. The Ravens defense has been good but not great against opposing TEs, allowing almost 15 fantasy points per game. The Chiefs are a home favorite, which is a great sign for Kelce’s scoring potential.

Jordan Thomas - $3,000 (VALUE): In Thomas’ last three games at home he has averaged 11 PPR points. Not too bad for a guy that just needs nine points to hit value. The Colts are surrendering 15 fantasy points per game to opposing TEs this year. Thomas has caught five of his six targets in the red zone this year, and four of those receptions have been for TDs.

N/A (FADE): I actually don’t have any TE fades this week. All of the top priced players ($5k and up) have really nice matchups.

All stats provided by Football Outsiders, 4for4, Pro Football Reference, and NFL Next Gen Stats

Week 13 NFL Picks

Jonathon Lee’s Picks:

Houston Texans @ Cleveland Browns OVER 47.5

Both of these teams have figured out how to score the football. Over the last four weeks, the Browns are averaging 25.5 points per game while the Texans are averaging 29.5. Baker Mayfield has the offense clicking, and despite the Texans’ defense improving every week, they will still allow points on the board. I am looking for a 30-24 final score.

LA Chargers +3.5 @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Something isn’t right with this Steelers team lately, coming off a loss to the Broncos and a dirty game against the Jaguars that was way too close. On the other side, the Chargers are freshly rested off a 45-10 beat down over the Arizona Cardinals last week. I think the 3.5 number is a little high because of the Chargers not having Melvin Gordon in the lineup, but Austin Ekeler should fit right in. The Steelers might win this ball game, but the Chargers keep it close.

Chicago Bears @ New York Giants UNDER 44.5

As of Thursday, Nov. 30, Mitchell Trubisky is ruled doubtful for this week’s contest in New York. Chase Daniel is a solid backup to have, but their main agenda will be to grind out a tough win through defense and the run game. Last week, the Giants went 1/3 in the Red Zone and as long as they continue kicking field goals instead of extra points, the under will be the play.

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins -3.5

Last week, the Dolphins put up a good fight against a hot Indianapolis Colts team and almost walked away with the victory after being up 24-14 in the 4th quarter. Ryan Tannehill returned from injury and went 17 of 25 for 204 yards and two touchdowns. They are a different team with Tannehill throwing the ball instead of Osweiler. The Bills are coming off a two-game win streak, but it ends this week.

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 47.5

The Jaguars are banged up on defense and haven’t allowed less than 20 points to their opponent since week 3 against the Titans. They are not the same team defensively as last year, and I expect Andrew Luck to carve them up, especially if Jalen Ramsey is out. During the Colts’ five-game win streak, they are averaging 34.6 points per game. As long as the Jaguars find the end zone twice, I like the over. The last time these two teams faced off, the final score was 29-26 in the Colts’ favor. I think we see the same kind of game this week. The Colts win this game 30-21.

Chris Kennedy’s Picks:

New York Giants +4:

This is just the kind of game that the Giants should lose, but could very well win. They’re going up against a Bears defense that has won five straight games, without allowing more than 22 points in any of them. With that said, while I don’t have any data to back up my prediction, I just have a hunch that the G-Men will cover this spread.

Oakland Raiders +15:

I know the Raiders won’t win, but this spread is just too high for me to bite on. The Chiefs defense is bad enough for Derek Carr to put up some points, even with Seth Roberts and Marcell Ateman at receiver. The Raiders are a mess, and the Chiefs are a juggernaut, but I’m taking the Raiders for the points.

New England Patriots -5:

I like the Patriots to win the game, but I think the Vikings keep it close. The Patriots’ secondary has been exploited all season, which means that Diggs and Thielen will get their opportunities to score. New England is 4-1 at home, and the Vikings are 2-2-1 when on the road, against the spread. The Patriots are fighting for home field in the playoffs, and Belichik knows how to push the right buttons towards the end of the season.

All stats provided by ESPN and Vegas Insider

NFL Week 11 Picks

Jonathon Lee’s Week 11 Picks (Last Week 1-2, YTD: 10-13)

Atlanta Falcons -3

Who are these Dallas Cowboys? I don’t think anyone knows. This pick will be settled in the first quarter, because what we do know about the Cowboys is that they have one way they are able to win games: take the lead early and control the game by running the ball. I think the Falcons prevent this from happening in Atlanta and they never look back. Matt Ryan going toe to toe with Dak Prescott? Give me Matt Ryan and lay the 3 points.

Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints OVER 55.5

55.5 is not too far off the monstrous total in the Monday Night Football game in Los Angeles. It’s definitely a high number for an NFL game. Who are we kidding, though? The Saints are at home where their game is elevated even more, and they’re coming off a week where they did not punt the ball one single time. On the other side, Philadelphia is officially in desperation mode being two games behind the Redskins in the NFC East. The Saints win this game but the Eagles score some points, and with this Brees/Kamara/Thomas three headed monster, we might only need about one Eagles touchdown to hit the over.

Arizona Cardinals -5.5

The Raiders simply just suck. They’re awful. They’re in Vegas mode and coming for the number 1 draft pick. Out of all the terrible things Jon Gruden has done in his first of ten years as head coach, the one thing he’s not going to do is win this game and jeopardize having the top overall pick. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have a rookie Quarterback looking to figure things out, and actually did put up some effort against the Chiefs last week. This game will be ugly, but I expect the Cardinals to win by at least two field goals.

Minnesota Vikings +2.5

Let’s all pump the brakes a little bit on the 2018 Bears. Yes, they are having an impressive year with young talent spread all around the field both offensively and defensively, but that key word is young talent. At 6-3, five of those six wins were against the Cardinals, Buccaneers, Jets, Bills, and Lions. Now they head to the bright lights on Sunday Night Football against their division rival Minnesota Vikings freshly rested off a bye week. This matchup will be a test for the Bears, and like most divisional games, I’m taking the points.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Rams OVER 63.5

This game is the second time this year for both the Rams and the Chiefs to have a heavy matchup between two offensive juggernauts. For the Chiefs, it was the highly anticipated Week 6 Sunday Night game against the Patriots that didn’t disappoint with a 40-43 final score. For the Rams, it was the equally anticipated Week 9 meeting with the Saints that also lived up to the hype with a final score of 45-35. Both of those games went way over the total. Now here we are in Week 11 in a clash of offenses on Monday Night Football. I can’t think of any scenario where the final score doesn’t have both teams in the 30’s. Grab your popcorn and take that over.

Chris Kennedy’s Week 11 Picks (Last Week 1-2; YTD: 5-4):

Kansas City Chiefs +3.5:

This game has the highest over-under in the history of the NFL, at 63.5, and features two of the top three highest scoring offenses in the league. The Chiefs are 8-2 against the spread, and 5-0 against the spread when on the road this year. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Chiefs win by 6 or more.

Carolina Panthers -4:

The Panthers offense has been impressive so far this year, though their pace of play has been one of the slowest in the league. They face the Lions who actually have the second slowest pace of play this season, mostly due to their inconsistent offense. Carolina has struggled on the road this year, but I think the Lions defense is too bad to lose to.

Arizona Cardinals -5.5:

Since Byron Leftwich took over as the head coach, he’s been making sure that his playmakers are getting the ball. We’ve seen an uptick in targets and usage for both Larry Fitzgerald and David Johnson. Oakland is a complete dumpster fire right now, and I’d be shocked if they win another game this year.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Giants OVER 52:

Ryan Fitzpatrick is back behind center, and he’s just slinging the ball all over the field (sometimes to the other team.) I can see both teams exceeding their season averages in points this Sunday, as neither defense is very good. The Giants give up more points at home than they do when on the road. Give me the over.

Fantasy Tidbits: 11/3/18

We have now found ourselves in the part of the season where multiple teams are on their byes and it is necessary to start your 3rd or 4th most ideal lineups. These are what I call the dog days of Fantasy. Here are some tidbits for Week 9.

Around the League

Lesean ‘Shady’ McCoy

Shady McCoy is not a good play against the Bears today. The Bears are the #3 rushing defense. They haven’t given up a rushing TD all season. The Bears are going to make Peterman beat them, and he won’t. At most I’d put McCoy in the Flex. If you have better options, bench him.

Phillip Rivers

Rivers is often forgotten about in fantasy leagues. It seems player fatigue is attached to him. Hasn’t he been playing for 20 years already? Rivers is only owned in 80% of leagues. If he is available in your league and you need a QB, he is a fantastic pick up. Today against the Seahawks should be a shoot out. Opposing QB’s are completing 66% of their passes against the former Legion of Boom. Rivers has 17 TD’s to 3 INT’s this season. The Seahawks have picked off 10 passes this season, but I don’t see Rivers turning the ball over for that to make a difference.

Hometown Fantasy Texans Versus Broncos

Phillip Lindsey

With Royce Freeman down, Phillip Lindsey will get all of the RB snaps against the Texans. All season, the Broncos have used a dual RB system with the two rookies. In limited time, with 50% of the offensive snaps or fewer, Lindsay has taken advantage of his opportunities. He is projected to rush for around 70 yards. The Texans do give up chunk running plays, but have only given up two rushing TD’s all season. That’s #2 in the league. I’d put Freeman on the bench or a Flex position. Personally, I’d stay away from the Bronco offense in fantasy today.

#4 (Watson) versus #4 (Keenum)

The battle of the #4’s isn’t really a battle at all. Watson is owned in 95% of leagues to Keenum’s 11%. Watson, in his de facto rookie season, is continuing to be a fantasy owner’s dream. Watson is completing 65% of his passes this season. In the first six games of the season, Watson was good for one interception every game. The last 2 games, Watson hasn’t turned the ball over to 6 TD’s.

When it comes to rushing, Watson averaged 40 yards per game the first 5 weeks. Since then, he has rushed for 29 yards in three games total. Watson has rushed 50% less the last two games. Billy O called a masterful game last Thursday. We will see if Watson stays in the pocket more. It will also be predicated on the OL. Chubb is hampered, but Miller is coming to feast. Watson is definitely a start in the QB1 position.

Keenum can only dream of Watson-type production. Despite having one of the best offensive lines in football, Keenum is playing very subpar. In three games this season, the Broncos don’t have a passing TD. Keenum has thrown an interception in every game this season. Expect the Texans safeties to be able to get a few INT’s. The Broncos traded one of their best and most durable offensive weapons this week, so expect lower production with the Broncos offense. The Texans have a weakness at corner due to injuries; if this offensive line can protect Keenum against the bull rush of the Texans star-studded defensive line, Keenum can go down field for some chunk plays. Keenum is not a good start in your league unless you have no other options. He is a bottom third QB this season.

Check back next Sunday morning for more Fantasy Tidbits. If you have any questions, find me on Twitter @MrsStephanieTA.

Week 8 Draft Kings NFL Showdown (Sunday Night) - Saints @ Vikings

A look at who to pick in the NFL Showdown primetime matchups.

I give much love to the NFL main slate, and probably a bit too much love. So, I want to start providing you with some insight into the prime time matchups on Sunday and Monday nights. DFS sites have started offering “Showdown” contests this season. What is a showdown? It’s a salary based contest, much like your standard classic contests, except it’s focused on just a single game. Where in a classic contest, you pick a QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/TE/FLEX/DST, a showdown allows you to pick six FLEX (including kickers) positions. The other twist of a showdown is the Captain position (represented by a crown).

 The Captain of your lineup will cost 1.5x more than their standard salary, but will also reward you with 1.5x their standard score. For example, Drew Brees is priced at $15,900 as a Captain, but $10,600 as a standard FLEX player.

That also means if he scores 20 points in the FLEX, he would score 30 points as your Captain. Got it? Good. The key to selecting your Captain is to figure out whom you feel will have the most upside, without blowing your budget on one player.

 The last thing I want to mention is ownership. Since it’s just a single game, you’re going to have the same players as almost everyone else in the contest so you want to diversify your picks by selecting players that not many others might, and then mixing those guys in with more popular/predictable options. Now that I’ve gone over the general basis for a Showdown let’s pick out some contrarian plays that should help you to gain an edge over the field.

Disclaimer: Do not fill up your entire roster with these players, but sprinkle them throughout your lineups for diversification.

Mark Ingram - $7,200: Over the last two games, Ingram has out-touched Kamara, 33 to 29.x Now, Kamara is still the guy in New Orleans, but I like Ingram as a pivot off of Kamara. Ingram has also been used in the red zone, with five carries inside the ten, which he has converted two of those carries into scores.y

Roc Thomas - $400: Who? Exactly! Houston, meet Roc Thomas. A UDFA (undrafted free agent) out of Jacksonville State, Thomas is a compact RB that can make plays happen in the passing game out of the backfield. With Dalvin Cook out this week, Thomas should see some opportunities behind Latavius Murray. He only has eight touches this season, but he has seen two targets in the red zone.y

Tre’Quan Smith - $5,400: Smith hasn’t seen a lot of targets (13), as he’s been fighting for playing time with Cameron Meredith.y With Ted Ginn Jr on IR, Smith should see more opportunities. The last two games that Smith has played with Ginn out, he’s been second on the team in targets and had a 111 yard/2TD performance against the Redskins in Week 5.y With Xavier Rhodes out this week, that potentially leaves Mackensie Alexander or Marcus Sherels with the task of covering Smith. I’ll take Smith every day of the week, and twice on Sundays.

Laquon Treadwell - $2,600: Laquon Treadwell, the man that caused me so much pain in Dynasty Football drafts in 2016, has now started to show signs of life. He has already met or exceeded almost every stat this season than he had all of last year. Treadwell has a 76 percent catch rate and is averaging about five targets per game.z With Thielen, Diggs, and Rudolph occupying most of the attention, give Treadwell a look in what should be a high scoring game.

Will Lutz - $3,200/Dan Bailey - $3,400: Yeah, I’m throwing kickers into the mix. So what if I kind of wants to throw up a little. Lutz and Bailey both average as many or more Draft Kings points per game than both of their team’s TEs. Lutz is in the top ten in XP made, and just outside of the top ten (11th) in FG made.w Bailey, since he joined the Vikings in Week 4, has averaged 2.75 XP and FG per game.y Need to save $1,000 or so? Grab a kicker and ditch the TE.

Stat Source Reference: w = ESPN,x = 4for4, y = Pro Football Reference, z = Pro Football Focus

PGA: The CJ Cup Draft Kings Report

This week we’re off to The Club at Nine Bridges, in South Korea. Only the second year of this tournament, it was considered by many as one of the top five most difficult courses on tour. Justin Thomas beat out Marc Leishman last year in a playoff. Leishman is coming off a victory at last week’s CIMB Classic.

The Club is a par 72 that runs just under 7,200 yards. The weather can play a factor, as last year they saw high winds. This course will require golfers to be accurate in their approach shots, along with solid putting. Only 78 golfers will be playing this week, and with no cut, all of your players have a chance. Here are the categories that I’m focusing on this week:

Prox (Proximity)

SG: T2G (Tee to Green)

BoB Gained (Birdies or Better)

Bogeys Avoided

SG: P (Putting, with an emphasis on Bentwood greens)

The fairways aren’t very narrow, so I’m not too concerned with driving accuracy.

$10k+:

Hideki Matsuyama - $10,400: When it comes to recent form, you won’t find many better than Matsuyama. Over his last 12 rounds, Hideki ranks in the top five in the field in all key stats, with the exception of Bogeys Avoided (21st). Matsuyama has finished in the top 15 over his last four events, which include two top five finishes. A lot of people are going to be on JT and for good reason, myself included. Matsuyama is as good of a pivot as there is.

Justin Thomas - $11,600: The defending champion from last year’s inaugural CJ Cup. JT has been playing out of his mind recently, ranking sixth in T2G, second in Birdies or Better, and sixth in Bogeys Avoided. His putting hasn’t been bad either, as he ranks 24th in the field over his last 12 rounds. Thomas’ last five tournaments have produced four finishes in the top 24, and three of those were in the top 10.

$8k-$9.9k:

Billy Horschel - $9,700: I’m going back to the well with Horschel! He didn’t have a great showing at the CIMB Classic, and I’m hoping that drops his ownership for this week. He is still top 10 in T2G and BoB Gained, and not counting last week he has three top five finishes over his last four tournaments. I like Horschel to bounce back this week for a top 10 finish.

Tyrrell Hatton - $9,500: At 27 years old, Hatton has been a force on the European Tour. He has taken off the last few PGA events, and I can see him up near the top of the leaderboard by the end of this tournament. Hatton is top 10 in Prox, T2G and Bogeys Avoided. If Hatton can avoid the three putts, he’ll be in great shape.

$7k-$7.9k:

Si Woo Kim - $7,400: This price range was the toughest because there are so many golfers that are very close, and I could have gone with a dozen of them. I wanted someone who has good recent form with Putting and BoB Gained, and Kim fits the bill as he’s in the top 20 for both key stats. Kim was also a top 10 finisher in last week’s event.

Charles Howell III - $7,700: CH3 is one of my favorite golfers, and from the interviews I’ve heard him do, he seems like a great guy. Over his last 12 rounds, Howell III ranks in the top 20 in BoB Gained, Bogeys Avoided, and Putting. He also finished 20th in this event last year, and had a top 25 showing in the BMW Championship last month.

$6.9k and under:

Jason Kokrak - $6,800: At this price it’s hard to find a golfer who is in the top 20 in most key stats, and Kokrak checks the boxes in four of my five categories. BoB Gained has been a bit of an opportunity for him, but I’m not going to be too picky.  

Hyun-woo Ryu - $6,500: Sixth in BoB Gained and seventh in Bogeys Avoided, Ryu is a guy that can shoot for par without gaining too many bogeys. That skill will be key this weekend, as this course will frustrate a lot of golfers. I’m not super excited by anyone $6.9k and under, but these are a couple to look at if you’re trying to save some money.

  *All statistics courtesy of Fantasy National Golf Club