Draft Kings Week 14 Report

Chris Kennedy on Dec. 4, 2018

The season is winding down, with just three weeks left. Week 13 brought us some key injuries, which means there will be some really nice value throughout fantasy football. This is the time of year when RB2 and WR3 really make an impact on their teams, so let’s dive in and try to win you some money this weekend.

QB:

Aaron Rodgers - $6,000 (LOCK): I believe that a coaching change is just what the doctor ordered, and I’m sure Rodgers isn’t complaining. In 12 games this season, Rodgers threw for over 300 yards just three times, along with three TDs just twice. I feel that he will break out this Sunday, as he’s facing a Falcons defense that gives up a 69 percent completion rate, a six percent touchdown rate, and 21 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs.

Marcus Mariota - $4,900 (VALUE): Since Week 9, Mariota has been averaging 20 Draft Kings points per game, and for someone that’s priced at $4,900, that’s a great value. I know that he’s facing the Jaguars, and they had a great game against the Colts last week. Let’s not forget that this is the same Jacksonville team that lost seven straight games prior to last week, giving up an average of 27 points per game. Taywan Taylor is healthy, giving Mariota another weapon alongside Corey Davis. I like Mariota to hit value in this spot.

Andrew Luck - $5,900 (FADE): I’m a believer in this Texans defense, and it’s not just because I work for Houston Preeminence. Luck had an absolute dud against the Jags last week and was sacked more times in that game than he had been in the seven weeks prior to that. The Colts are a road underdog, and that doesn’t bode well for Luck, especially as he’ll be facing a Texans defense that ranks sixth in total DVOA.

RB:

Christian McCaffrey - $9,300 (LOCK): His price tag might look a bit daunting, but he’s well worth it. He’s the third highest scoring fantasy running back, and he’s going up against a Browns defense that gives up 113 rushing yards, 52 receiving yards, and 20 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs. Even with Devin Funchess back from his neck injury, I expect McCaffrey to continue to see a heavy workload in the passing game.

Jaylen Samuels - $3,700 (VALUE): When the Steelers feature a running back, they really feature a running back. With James Conner already ruled out for Week 14, that means Samuels will get the call. The fifth round pick out of NC State has almost as many targets as he has rushing attempts. Granted, those rushing attempts have led to just 2.6 yards per attempt. The upside with Samuels outweighs everything, as he needs just 12 points to hit value, and he’ll be going up against a Raiders defense that has been shredded by RBs for an average of 126 yards per game.

Todd Gurley - $8,800 (FADE): DO NOT bench Todd Gurley in your season long leagues. I just don’t like his price in DK, facing a tough Bears defense in Chicago. Yes, Saquon Barkley rushed for over 100 yards last week, but the Bears haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher at home all season. In fact, the Bears haven’t given up more than 51 rushing yards to a single RB at home all year. I love Gurley, I do. But I’m looking elsewhere in DFS this week.

WR:

Julio Jones - $7,900 (LOCK): Julio burned me last week, but I’m going back to the well on this one. The Falcons are road underdogs against a Packers defense that allows 37 fantasy points per game to opposing WRs. Jones is averaging 22 Draft Kings points per game, which is fifth best among WRs. As underdogs, the Falcons will most likely be playing from behind, which means Matty Ice will be airing it out to his number one guy. With a 29 percent target share, and 14.7 aDOT, I expect Julio to have some big gains through the air.

Zay Jones - $4,200 (VALUE): Jones’ only competition for targets this year was Kelvin Benjamin, and the Bills released Benjamin today. That makes Jones the clear-cut number one option in Buffalo, and it couldn’t come at a better time. He’ll be matching up against the Jets’ Buster Skrine, who has been repeatedly embarrassed by opposing WRs this season. As Josh Allen continues to improve, so will Jones’ fantasy numbers.

Tyler Boyd - $6,100 (FADE): A.J. Green is done for the season, and that just means that more of the opposing defense’s attention will be put on Boyd. In the games that Green has missed this year, Boyd only topped 20 fantasy points once. That’s not what you want to see from a “number one” receiver. This week he gets a stout Chargers defense. I don’t see this going very well for Boyd.

TE:

Travis Kelce - $6,700 (LOCK): I don’t care about his price tag, you jam Kelce into your lineups no matter what. He’s only second to Zach Ertz in receptions and targets, first in yards per game and also in red zone targets. The Ravens defense has been good but not great against opposing TEs, allowing almost 15 fantasy points per game. The Chiefs are a home favorite, which is a great sign for Kelce’s scoring potential.

Jordan Thomas - $3,000 (VALUE): In Thomas’ last three games at home he has averaged 11 PPR points. Not too bad for a guy that just needs nine points to hit value. The Colts are surrendering 15 fantasy points per game to opposing TEs this year. Thomas has caught five of his six targets in the red zone this year, and four of those receptions have been for TDs.

N/A (FADE): I actually don’t have any TE fades this week. All of the top priced players ($5k and up) have really nice matchups.

All stats provided by Football Outsiders, 4for4, Pro Football Reference, and NFL Next Gen Stats

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