We’re more than two thirds of the way through the season, and Week 13 is upon us. Now is the time of year when injuries are stacking up, and you’re scouring the waiver wire for replacements. That also means there are some really nice value plays in DFS. As always, I’ll be showcasing my favorite plays this week at each position, along with some guys you might want to avoid. Let’s get after it!
Jared Goff - $6,400 (LOCK): I think that Goff will be highly owned, but I like him as a pivot off of Mahomes who should be the highest-owned QB this week. The Rams are a big play team, and they’re going against a Lions defense that gives up a lot of big plays (plays of 20 plus yards.) Detroit is also allowing the second highest completion percentage and TD rate to opposing QBs this season. Even without Cooper Kupp, Goff has plenty of weapons at his disposal to shred this defense.
Chase Daniel - $4,800 (VALUE): If Trubisky can’t go on Sunday, save at QB and add Daniel to a few of your lineups. He played alright in his debut on Thanksgiving, with a 230/2 TD line. The Bears will face off against the New York Football Giants this week, who just don’t have an identity right now. Daniel has enough talent around him, including a solid offensive line that will allow him to succeed if he needs to fill in for Trubisky for another week.
Deshaun Watson - $6,100 (FADE): Sorry, Texans fans. It’s not that I’m low on Watson this week, as much as I’m really high on this Browns defense. This season, Cleveland has a pressure rate of 11%, and a top ten defense in the league. They also only allow a 62 percent completion rate, and just four percent TD rate to opposing QBs. Watson hasn’t thrown the ball more than 25 over his last six games, and has only thrown for two TDs or more in one of those games. I just don’t see him reaching value this week.
Christian McCaffrey - $8,800 (LOCK): I know he will most likely be the highest owned player, but I don’t care. Find a way to jam him into your lineups. He’s top five in the league in total touches, receptions, red zone targets, and touchdowns this year. He’ll be facing a Buccaneers defense that gives up a big play 17 percent of their opponents’ rushing attempts, 50 receiving yards, and 26 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs. Last week, we saw McCaffrey explode for 46 fantasy points, and don’t be surprised if he gets close to 40 points this week.
T.J. Yeldon - $4,400 (VALUE): Leonard Fournette is suspended for this week, which means we’ll see a bigger workload for Yeldon. The Jags are underdogs against the Colts, and they’ll be starting Cody Kessler behind center. When Fournette was out with injuries, Yeldon was a top ten fantasy running back in PPR formats. He’s going against the Colts, who allow 69 receiving yards and 29 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs. Carlos Hyde hasn’t been able to get much going with just 3.4 yards per attempt this year, so I’m not too worried about him taking away key touches from Yeldon.
Ezekiel Elliott - $8,000 (FADE): Elliott is in contention for the MVP this season, but I really believe in this Saints defense. They’ve allowed just 50 rushing yards and 40 receiving yards per game to opposing RBs this season. So far this year, New Orleans has held Todd Gurley, Joe Mixon, and Saquon Barkley all under 70 yards rushing. I know Dallas is at home, but so were Barkley and Mixon.
Mike Evans - $8,100 (LOCK): This was a tough one, as there are a lot of great plays this week at WR. I’m going with Evans because the Buccaneers are road underdogs in what should be a fairly competitive game. Also, with an over-under of 56, the points will be a plenty. Evans has found the end zone just five times this year, though I’m sure having a revolving door of QBs hasn’t helped much. Regardless, he still averages more yards per target than any other WR in the league, and will be facing a Panthers secondary that gives up 40 fantasy points per game to opposing WRs.
Courtland Sutton - $4,200 (VALUE): We’ve been waiting all season for Sutton’s breakout game, and I feel like this week could be it. He’s going against the Bengals who are on pace to allow the most total yards in NFL history this season. The over-under for this game is just 42, but both of these teams are in the top ten in pace, so I feel like this could be a sneaky shootout. Sutton is averaging 20 yards per target, which is just second in the league to the Niners’ Marquise Goodwin. Sutton needs just 13 points to hit value, which makes him a great play in this spot.
Odell Beckham Jr. - $7,800 (FADE): I love Odell, but I just don’t trust anything that’s happening in the Giants’ offense. He’s up against a stout Bears defense that only allows 35 fantasy points per game to all WRs, and only 60 receiving yards to opposing WR1. Odell hasn’t hit value over his last three games, and I don’t see him doing it this week.
Jared Cook - $4,700 (LOCK): I love Kelce this week, but at $7K, it’s a bit high for me. Cook could be both my lock and value pick, as he has such a great matchup for such a low cost. Cook has scored in back to back games, and would need just 14 points to hit value. The Chiefs have allowed 17 fantasy points per game to opposing TEs, which is second worst to only the Panthers this year. Oakland is a big underdog, which means that Derek Carr will be airing it out all game.
Gerald Everett - $2,900 (VALUE): Everett has scored three times in his last two games, and this week he’s facing a Lions defense that has allowed the fourth most TDs to opposing TEs this year. If you’re looking to pretty much punt the position this week, Everett is as good of an option as you’ll find.
Jordan Reed - $5,300 (FADE): With the exception of just one game, Reed has really burned a lot of fantasy players this year. He’s been healthy, but has only cracked 13 PPR points three times. He’s also going against an Eagles defense that allows just 8 fantasy points per game to opposing TEs, along with giving up just three TDs all season to them. Reed is a hard pass for me this week.
*All stats provided from Football Outsiders, 4for4, Pro Football Reference, and NFL Next Gen Stats