Draft Kings Week 10 Main Slate Report
Last week I advised you to fade just about every member of the Chiefs, except for Kareem Hunt. I told you to fade James Conner. Well, I was wrong, and I apologize. With that said, I do hope you played some of my lock and value plays, as they would have helped you to win some money. It’s a new week, and with a new week comes new hope!
Philip Rivers - $6,000 (LOCK): Rivers is having one of the best seasons of all NFL QBs, and nobody is talking about it. He’s on pace to reach 4,000 passing yards for the sixth straight year, a career-high 38 passing touchdowns, and a career-low six interceptions.z This week he plays the Oakland Raiders, who are allowing 20 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs.w Rivers CAY (completed air yards) is third best among the main slate QBs, at 6.9.y Football Outsiders has Oakland’s pass defense ranked dead last this season. In a game that has an over-under of 50.5, and the Chargers implied total at 30, look for Rivers to have a big game.
Alex Smith - $5,300 (VALUE): Now, I normally wouldn’t recommend that you play Alex Smith in DFS, but this isn’t just any normal week. This week, Smith goes against the J.V. team of the NFL, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs are the worst in the league in opponent completion percentage (74), opponent touchdown rate (7.56), and fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs (23).z With Jamison Crowder’s status uncertain for Sunday, look for Josh Doctson to continue to see an uptick in targets.
Jared Goff - $6,100 (FADE): I loved Goff last week, but this week against Seattle I’m looking elsewhere. The Seahawks are ranked in the top give in both pass defense and weighted defense (higher emphasis on games played later in the season), according to Football Outsiders. Seattle also ranks fourth best in fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs.w
Alvin Kamara - $8,700 (LOCK): Kamara will be going against a Bengals defense that has been allowing an average of 106 rushing yards, 53 receiving yards, and 31 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs this year.z Karama doesn’t need to worry about Mark Ingram, as he has out-touched Ingram 62 to 40 over the last four weeks.w One stat that I love is: Kamara’s usage in the red zone. He leads all RBs with 20 targets in the red zone this season.z This game has the highest over-under of the week (54), with the Saints being just a four-point favorite. Kamara will EAT!
Duke Johnson Jr - $4,700 (VALUE): I’m a big fan of Nick Chubb, but this week it’s all about Duke. The Browns are road underdogs to the Falcons, so expect Baker Mayfield to throw a lot. Chubb is not known for his receiving ability. Atlanta gives up a league-high 82 receiving yards to opposing RBs.z Atlanta’s defensive scheme is built around dump offs and check downs to the RB, because they’re so afraid of getting beat deep with their injured secondary. Much like last week, the game script should favor Duke Johnson on Sunday.
Joe Mixon - $7,700 (FADE): Last week we saw Mixon have his first 100-yard rushing game, and we’ll have to wait another week before we see it again. This week he will go up against the New Orleans Saints, who give up just 52 rushing yards and 42 receiving yards per game to opposing RBs.z With the Saints having the best run defense in the league, I won’t have any exposure to Mixon in my lineups this week.
A.J. Green - $7,600 (LOCK): While I’m fading Green’s teammate, Mixon, this week; there’s not a chance in hell that I’m passing on this matchup. Not only do the Saints give up the most receiving yards, TDs, and fantasy points to opposing WRs this year,z but they also allow the third most receiving yards to WR1.v Green has had just one game this year with multiple receiving TDs, and I do believe he gets another one this weekend. He commands 40 percent of the targeted air yards, which is the third highest among the main slate WRs.y So, with the Bengals being an underdog in the highest projected game of the week, look for Green to be targeted early and often.
Josh Doctson - $4,300 (VALUE): Again, I’m sticking with the underdog at WR. Why? The team that’s the underdog is most likely going to be playing from behind, which means they will need to throw more. Targeting the WR1 or WR2 from the underdog is a great way to leverage your lineups. Even if Jamison Crowder comes back this week, I still love Doctson in this spot. It doesn’t matter if he’s the WR1 or WR2, the Bucs are in the bottom three in the league when it comes to covering both positions.v
Julio Jones - $8,300 (FADE): After Julio catching his first touchdown in 12 games last week, I think many people will be on him this week. The problem is that this week he goes up against Denzel Ward of the Browns. Ward has been one of the best corners in the league this year, as he allows opposing WRs to catch just 55 percent of targets against him.x I love Julio, just not this week.
Zach Ertz - $6,300 (LOCK): No TE in the league has more targets and red zone targets than Ertz this season. That will certainly help as he faces off against the Cowboys on Sunday, who allow just over 13 fantasy points per game to opposing TEs.w With Sean Lee likely to miss this week, Ertz shouldn’t have any trouble finding space to work with. Ertz should be matched up against Jeff Heath, who has been anything but impressive this year.
Trey Burton - $3,900 (VALUE): Allen Robinson is still battling a groin injury, and even if he does suit up, I don’t expect him to be extremely productive until he’s healthy. That means Burton should have a bigger role in the offense this week. This week’s game against the Lions should be a bit closer than last week’s shellacking over the Bills; so I can see Trubisky airing it out more. The Lions have allowed four receiving TDs to opposing TEs, which is the third most in the league.z
Rob Gronkowski - $5,600 (FADE): Gronk didn’t play last week due to a back injury, and even if he’s active this week, I’m going to look elsewhere for TE. When Gronk is injured and plays, he’s usually out on the field as a decoy and that’s it. Also, he’s going up against a Titans defense that is one of the top five teams in the league against TEs.v
*Stat Source Key (v = Football Outsiders, w = 4for4, x = Pro Football Focus, y = NextGenStats, z = Pro Football Reference)